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Eintracht Münchberg vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
J. Huttemann 90+1'
P. Tittmann 79'
M. Weiss 66', 35'
K. Popowicz 32'
T. Scherbaum 19'
7/27/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg26%
×Draw23%
Bayern Hof51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.23
Bayern Hof
1.83

Bayern Hof creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Bayern Hof
1.49

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Bayern Hof
1.64

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
49%
Eintracht Münchberg or Bayern Hof
77%
Draw or Bayern Hof
74%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
10%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
71%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
35%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
13%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
84%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
54%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
33%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
26%
level
23%
Bayern Hof scores more
51%

Bayern Hof at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
T. Scherbaum
32'
K. Popowicz
35'
M. Weiss
66'
M. Weiss
79'
P. Tittmann
90+1'
J. Huttemann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eintracht Münchberg 1–5 Bayern Hof

Bayern Hof beat Eintracht Münchberg 5-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Scherbaum (19'), K. Popowicz (32'), M. Weiss (35', 66'), P. Tittmann (79'), J. Huttemann (90+1').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.