Bayern Hof 0–1 Eintracht Münchberg: Result & Stats

Bayern Hof

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Münchberg

L. Kohler 89'

11/2/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 19Städtisches Stadion Grüne Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bayern Hof58%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Münchberg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern HofExpected goals in this matchEintracht Münchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.19

Bayern Hof

2.08

Eintracht Münchberg

1.19

Bayern Hof creates 75% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Bayern Hof

1.44

Eintracht Münchberg

0.94

allows per match

Bayern Hof

1.43

Eintracht Münchberg

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw

79%

Bayern Hof or Eintracht Münchberg

79%

Draw or Eintracht Münchberg

42%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

35%

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

87%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

61%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

34%

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

70%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

73%

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bayern Hof scores more

58%

level

21%

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

21%

Bayern Hof at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

89'

L. Kohler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff