Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eintracht Münchberg vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
F. Markert 9'
10/19/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg29%
×Draw24%
ATSV Erlangen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.25
ATSV Erlangen
1.67

ATSV Erlangen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
53%
Eintracht Münchberg or ATSV Erlangen
76%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
71%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
12%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
71%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
36%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
13%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
81%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
50%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
38%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
29%
level
24%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
47%

ATSV Erlangen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
F. Markert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Münchberg vs ATSV Erlangen

ATSV Erlangen beat Eintracht Münchberg 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 19, 2024.

Goals: F. Markert (9').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.