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ATSV Erlangen vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
M. Gundling 89'
G. Perera 69', 45+1'
L. Markert 66', 23'
S. Luft 17'
J. Huttemann 47'
5/17/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 34Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ATSV Erlangen62%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Münchberg19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
2.25
Eintracht Münchberg
1.16

ATSV Erlangen creates 94% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
81%
ATSV Erlangen or Eintracht Münchberg
80%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
38%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
39%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
89%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
65%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
39%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
69%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
77%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
62%
level
20%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
19%

ATSV Erlangen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
S. Luft
23'
L. Markert
45+1'
G. Perera
47'
J. Huttemann
66'
L. Markert
69'
G. Perera
89'
M. Gundling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATSV Erlangen vs Eintracht Münchberg

ATSV Erlangen beat Eintracht Münchberg 6-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 17, 2025.

Goals: S. Luft (17'), L. Markert (23', 66'), G. Perera (45+1', 69'), J. Huttemann (47'), M. Gundling (89').

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.