Eintracht Münchberg 1–3 ASV Neumarkt

Eintracht Münchberg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

ASV Neumarkt

T. Frank 9'

L. Gumpelein 67'

P. Majewski 53'

M. Adelabu 47'

4/12/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 29FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg26%

×Draw23%

ASV Neumarkt51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht MünchbergExpected goals in this matchASV Neumarkt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.88

Eintracht Münchberg

1.29

ASV Neumarkt

1.88

ASV Neumarkt creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

0.82

creates per match

1.58

2.18

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg

0.82

ASV Neumarkt

1.58

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg

2.18

ASV Neumarkt

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

ASV Neumarkt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw

49%

Eintracht Münchberg or ASV Neumarkt

77%

Draw or ASV Neumarkt

74%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

11%

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

72%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

37%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

14%

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

85%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

56%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

34%

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

26%

level

23%

ASV Neumarkt scores more

51%

ASV Neumarkt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

T. Frank

47'

M. Adelabu

53'

P. Majewski

67'

L. Gumpelein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff