ASV Neumarkt 6–2 Eintracht Münchberg

ASV Neumarkt

FT

6 – 2

HT: 5 – 1

Eintracht Münchberg

9/21/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 12Stadion am Deininger Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

ASV Neumarkt60%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Münchberg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASV NeumarktExpected goals in this matchEintracht Münchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.21

ASV Neumarkt

2.23

Eintracht Münchberg

1.21

ASV Neumarkt creates 84% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.76

creates per match

0.94

1.49

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.76

Eintracht Münchberg

0.94

allows per match

ASV Neumarkt

1.49

Eintracht Münchberg

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV Neumarkt ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

ASV Neumarkt or draw

80%

ASV Neumarkt or Eintracht Münchberg

80%

Draw or Eintracht Münchberg

40%

Winning margin

ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+

38%

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals

89%

ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals

65%

ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals

38%

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

70%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

34%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)

75%

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV Neumarkt at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.76 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ASV Neumarkt scores more

60%

level

20%

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

20%

ASV Neumarkt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff