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Eintracht Münchberg vs Ammerthal — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ammerthal
Ammerthal
P. Vuckov 90+1'
L. Kohler 23'
F. Pirner 62'
9/14/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg27%
×Draw22%
Ammerthal50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.36
Ammerthal
1.91

Ammerthal creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Ammerthal
1.63

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Ammerthal
1.90

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Ammerthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
50%
Eintracht Münchberg or Ammerthal
78%
Draw or Ammerthal
73%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
12%
Ammerthal wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
74%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
39%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
16%
Ammerthal 1+ goals
85%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
57%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
35%
Ammerthal (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
27%
level
22%
Ammerthal scores more
50%

Ammerthal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
L. Kohler
62'
F. Pirner
90+1'
P. Vuckov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Münchberg 2 – 1 Ammerthal

Eintracht Münchberg beat Ammerthal 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Kohler (23'), F. Pirner (62'), P. Vuckov (90+1').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.