Ammerthal 3–2 Eintracht Münchberg: Result & Stats

Ammerthal

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Münchberg

L. Klaus 89', 10'

V. Zimmermann 85'

A. Tac 68'

E. Mal 53'

4/6/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ammerthal61%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Münchberg19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmmerthalExpected goals in this matchEintracht Münchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.16

Ammerthal

2.21

Eintracht Münchberg

1.16

Ammerthal creates 91% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.72

creates per match

0.94

1.38

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Ammerthal

1.72

Eintracht Münchberg

0.94

allows per match

Ammerthal

1.38

Eintracht Münchberg

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw

81%

Ammerthal or Eintracht Münchberg

80%

Draw or Eintracht Münchberg

39%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+

38%

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals

89%

Ammerthal 2+ goals

65%

Ammerthal 3+ goals

38%

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

69%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

32%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)

76%

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ammerthal scores more

61%

level

20%

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

19%

Ammerthal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ammerthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Klaus

53'

E. Mal

68'

A. Tac

85'

V. Zimmermann

89'

L. Klaus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff