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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
8/6/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Sportanlage Am Rosenhag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf49%
×Draw23%
CFC Hertha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.82
CFC Hertha
1.33

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 37% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 44 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
72%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or CFC Hertha
77%
Draw or CFC Hertha
51%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
27%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
84%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
54%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
27%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
74%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
38%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
63%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.82

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
49%
level
23%
CFC Hertha scores more
28%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Eintracht Mahlsdorf 4–0 CFC Hertha

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat CFC Hertha 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Am Rosenhag in Berlin.