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CFC Hertha vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
CANC
12:30
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2/18/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CFC Hertha41%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.67
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
64%
CFC Hertha or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
77%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
59%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
21%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
81%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
50%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
23%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
79%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
45%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
54%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.67

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
41%
level
23%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
36%

CFC Hertha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CFC Hertha host Eintracht Mahlsdorf

February 18, 2024: CFC Hertha take on Eintracht Mahlsdorf in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

CFC Hertha host Eintracht Mahlsdorf at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.