Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 1. FC Köln: Result & Stats

Eintracht Frankfurt

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

1. FC Köln

N. Nkounkou 87'

F. Kainz 43' (pen)

9/3/2023

Bundesliga · Round 3Frankfurt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Eintracht Frankfurt50%

×Draw23%

1. FC Köln27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht FrankfurtExpected goals in this match1. FC Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.24

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.76

1. FC Köln

1.24

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.64

creates per match

1.37

1.11

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.64

1. FC Köln

1.37

allows per match

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.11

1. FC Köln

1.88

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.24scores more

1. FC Köln-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankfurt ↓

1. FC Köln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankfurt or draw

73%

Eintracht Frankfurt or 1. FC Köln

77%

Draw or 1. FC Köln

50%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+

27%

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals

83%

Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals

52%

Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals

26%

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

71%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

35%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)

65%

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankfurt at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.11 · 26 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.64 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

1. FC Köln attack 1.37 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more

50%

level

23%

1. FC Köln scores more

27%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Chabot

1. FC Köln · D

8.0

Match Events

43'

F. KainzPenalty

45+3'

Eric Martel

45+1'

Dejan Ljubičić

46'

J. Hauge← P. Max

58'

M. Olesen← L. Waldschmidt

58'

F. Alidou← L. Maina

64'

Omar Marmoush

67'

J. Ngankam← Omar Marmoush

70'

Benno Schmitz

73'

S. Rode← H. Larsson

73'

N. Nkounkou← J. Dina Ebimbe

74'

S. Adamyan← S. Tigges

75'

R. Carstensen← B. Schmitz

79'

L. Kilian← J. Chabot

80'

P. Aaronson← Aurélio Buta

87'

N. Nkounkou↳ P. Aaronson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eintracht1.

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots7

1.35Expected Goals (xG)0.91

8Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots7

3On Target2

2Off Target4

8Blocked1

11Inside Box3

2Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

718Total Passes381

626Accurate Passes285

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0