1. FC Köln 3–0 Eintracht Frankfurt: Result & Stats

1. FC Köln

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Frankfurt

E. Skhiri 86', 71'

T. Hübers 49'

2/12/2023

Bundesliga · Round 20RheinEnergieStadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

1. FC Köln44%

×Draw24%

Eintracht Frankfurt32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KölnExpected goals in this matchEintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

1. FC Köln

1.65

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.36

1. FC Köln creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.54

creates per match

1.26

1.46

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

1. FC Köln

1.54

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.26

allows per match

1. FC Köln

1.46

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.75

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.02on par

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw

68%

1. FC Köln or Eintracht Frankfurt

76%

Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt

56%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

23%

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

81%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

49%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

23%

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals

74%

Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals

39%

Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

58%

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 1.54 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.26 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1. FC Köln scores more

44%

level

24%

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more

32%

1. FC Köln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Skhiri

1. FC Köln · M

8.3

Match Events

17'

Daichi KamadaPenalty cancelled

28'

45+2'

49'

61'

65'

R. Borré← J. Lindstrøm

66'

A. Knauff← Aurélio Buta

67'

M. Olesen← D. Huseinbašić

67'

S. Adamyan← S. Tigges

68'

Timo Hübers

71'

E. Skhiri↳ S. Adamyan

72'

S. Rode← D. Sow

79'

Julian Chabot

80'

K. Schindler← L. Maina

80'

J. Thielmann← F. Kainz

80'

L. Alario← M. Hasebe

86'

E. Skhiri

88'

T. Lemperle← E. Martel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Eintracht

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots6

1.17Expected Goals (xG)0.34

3Corners9

15Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots6

4On Target1

2Off Target3

2Blocked2

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

410Total Passes550

309Accurate Passes439

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2