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Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Eintracht Frankf U19
Eintracht Frankf U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
8/23/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1939%
×Draw21%
Hoffenheim U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankf U19
2.02
Hoffenheim U19
2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 71 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19
2.29
Hoffenheim U19
2.68

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19
1.43
Hoffenheim U19
1.76

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par
Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw
60%
Eintracht Frankf U19 or Hoffenheim U19
79%
Draw or Hoffenheim U19
61%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+
21%
Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals
60%
Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals
33%
Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
87%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
61%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 2.68, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.29 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hoffenheim U19 attack 2.68 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Hoffenheim U19 scores more
40%

Hoffenheim U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Frankf U19 2 – 1 Hoffenheim U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat Hoffenheim U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Riederwald in Frankfurt am Main.