Eintracht Frankf U19 4–0 Freiburg U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Freiburg U19

Fabio Gomez 65' (pen), 45+1'

D. Mehičević 47'

M. Damar 13'

9/25/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1948%

×Draw22%

Freiburg U1931%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.59

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.01

Freiburg U19

1.59

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 67 away

2.34

creates per match

1.76

1.42

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.34

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.42

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

69%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or Freiburg U19

78%

Draw or Freiburg U19

52%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

27%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

87%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

59%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

32%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

47%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.01

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

48%

level

22%

Freiburg U19 scores more

31%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Damar

45+1'

Fabio Gomez

46'

M. Wörner← J. Ribeiro

46'

R. Pfauser← L. Bega

47'

D. Mehičević

60'

M. Bleise← A. Moutassime

62'

C. Karakaş← H. Ghotra

65'

Fabio GomezPenalty

66'

A. Echner← G. Pellegrino

68'

D. Maqkaj← M. Loune

73'

G. Schäfer← J. Schröder

78'

J. Nathaniel← D. Mehičević

Eintracht

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Mehičević

⚽2

Gomez

Manager: J. Kramny

62'▲C. Karakaş←▼H. Ghotra

68'▲D. Maqkaj←▼M. Loune

73'▲G. Schäfer←▼J. Schröder

78'▲J. Nathaniel←▼D. Mehičević

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

KarakaşMaqkajSchäferNathanielGebuhrHorzKleiner

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲M. Wörner←▼J. Ribeiro

46'▲R. Pfauser←▼L. Bega

60'▲M. Bleise←▼A. Moutassime

66'▲A. Echner←▼G. Pellegrino

Freiburg U19 substitutes

WörnerPfauserBleiseEchnerMackHülsenbuschBirk