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Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Eintracht Frankf U19
Eintracht Frankf U19
CANC
10:00
Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1948%
×Draw22%
Freiburg U1931%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Frankf U19
2.01
Freiburg U19
1.59

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 67 away

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19
2.34
Freiburg U19
1.76

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19
1.42
Freiburg U19
1.69

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par
Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw
69%
Eintracht Frankf U19 or Freiburg U19
78%
Draw or Freiburg U19
52%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+
27%
Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals
87%
Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals
59%
Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals
32%
Freiburg U19 1+ goals
80%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
47%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.01

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Freiburg U19 scores more
31%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Frankf U19 face Freiburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Eintracht Frankf U19 hosting Freiburg U19. Match starts January 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Eintracht Frankf U19 host Freiburg U19 at Stadion am Riederwald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.