Eintracht Frankf U19 1–0 Astoria Walldorf U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Astoria Walldorf U19

M. Damar 58'

4/2/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1957%

×Draw20%

Astoria Walldorf U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.34

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.23

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.34

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 23 away

2.29

creates per match

1.26

1.43

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.29

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.43

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

77%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

80%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

43%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

35%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

65%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

38%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

74%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

39%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 70 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.29 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

57%

level

20%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

23%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

M. Damar

64'

D. Maqkaj← M. Loune

64'

D. Mehičević← Nacho Ferri

64'

V. Kim← M. Manegold

75'

J. Laboard← N. Wannemacher

84'

J. Nathaniel← H. Ghotra

90+1'

L. Kolbe← B. Küpelikılınç

Eintracht

Astoria

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Ibertsberger

64'▲D. Maqkaj←▼M. Loune

64'▲D. Mehičević←▼Nacho Ferri

84'▲J. Nathaniel←▼H. Ghotra

90+1'▲L. Kolbe←▼B. Küpelikılınç

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

MaqkajMehičevićNathanielKolbeTemurTepedibiGauer

Manager: Roberto Pinto

64'▲V. Kim←▼M. Manegold

75'▲J. Laboard←▼N. Wannemacher

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

KimLaboardWagnerCollinsMehrZentlerGerold

Match Recap: Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 2, 2022.

Goals: M. Damar (58').

The match was played at Stadion am Riederwald in Frankfurt am Main.

Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eintracht Frankf U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19