Astoria Walldorf U19 1–5 Eintracht Frankf U19

Astoria Walldorf U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

Eintracht Frankf U19

L. Nagelbach 1'

F. Windhagen 79'

M. Pečar 76'

Seo Jong-min 61', 57'

H. Bakırsu 31' (pen)

10/16/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Astoria Walldorf U1926%

×Draw19%

Eintracht Frankf U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astoria Walldorf U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.58

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.73

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.58

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 70 away

1.65

creates per match

2.33

2.83

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.65

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.33

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.83

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf U19 or draw

44%

Astoria Walldorf U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

81%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

74%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

12%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

25%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

72%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.83 · 23 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.80 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.65 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.33 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

26%

level

19%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

56%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

L. Nagelbach

25'

J. Laboard← S. Noci

30'

B. Tepedibi← J. Schröder

31'

H. BakırsuPenalty

57'

Seo Jong-min

61'

Seo Jong-min

66'

D. Schmidt← N. Bajušić

66'

M. Simonis← Y. Rastetter

73'

D. Dervis← L. Nagelbach

76'

M. Pečar

77'

A. Fóti← H. Bakırsu

77'

G. Pontikou← A. Loune

77'

H. Gothra← T. Littmann

79'

F. Windhagen

Astoria

Eintracht

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Pinto

25'▲J. Laboard←▼S. Noci

66'▲D. Schmidt←▼N. Bajušić

66'▲M. Simonis←▼Y. Rastetter

73'▲D. Dervis←▼L. Nagelbach

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

LaboardSchmidtSimonisDervisSengülMerzDietrich

Manager: J. Kramny

30'▲B. Tepedibi←▼J. Schröder

77'▲A. Fóti←▼H. Bakırsu

77'▲G. Pontikou←▼A. Loune

77'▲H. Gothra←▼T. Littmann

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

TepedibiFótiPontikouGothraKüpelikılınçHorzHeckmann

Match Recap: Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat Astoria Walldorf U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 16, 2020.

Goals: L. Nagelbach (1'), H. Bakırsu (31' pen), Seo Jong-min (57', 61'), M. Pečar (76'), F. Windhagen (79').

The match was played at Dietmar-Hopp-Sportpark in Walldorf.

Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Astoria Walldorf U19 vs Eintracht Frankf U19