Eintracht Braunschweig 2–0 Karlsruher SC

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karlsruher SC

2/10/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 21Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig39%

×Draw25%

Karlsruher SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.41

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.46

Karlsruher SC

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 119 away

1.21

creates per match

1.43

1.39

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.21

Karlsruher SC

1.43

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.39

Karlsruher SC

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Karlsruher SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

64%

Eintracht Braunschweig or Karlsruher SC

75%

Draw or Karlsruher SC

61%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

18%

Karlsruher SC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

77%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

43%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

18%

Karlsruher SC 1+ goals

76%

Karlsruher SC 2+ goals

41%

Karlsruher SC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

51%

Karlsruher SC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Karlsruher SC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Karlsruher SC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Karlsruher SC attack 1.43 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

39%

level

25%

Karlsruher SC scores more

36%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff