Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Wurzburger Kickers

4/16/2022

League #80 · Round 34Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig55%

×Draw22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.18

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.93

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.18

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 64% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.07

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

2.14

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.07

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.29

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

77%

Eintracht Braunschweig or FC Wurzburger Kickers

78%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

45%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

32%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

85%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

57%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

30%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

69%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

33%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

70%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 2.14 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.07 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

55%

level

22%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

23%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff