Eintracht Braunschweig 1–2 1. FC Köln

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

1. FC Köln

E. Bičakčić 1'

D. Downs 30'

E. Martel 13'

2/1/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 20Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig32%

×Draw26%

1. FC Köln41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this match1. FC Köln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.38

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.18

1. FC Köln

1.38

1. FC Köln creates 17% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 32 away

1.29

creates per match

1.41

1.35

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.29

1. FC Köln

1.41

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.35

1. FC Köln

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

1. FC Köln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

1. FC Köln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

59%

Eintracht Braunschweig or 1. FC Köln

74%

Draw or 1. FC Köln

68%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

13%

1. FC Köln wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

69%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

12%

1. FC Köln 1+ goals

75%

1. FC Köln 2+ goals

40%

1. FC Köln 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

44%

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

1. FC Köln away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.29 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

1. FC Köln attack 1.41 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

32%

level

26%

1. FC Köln scores more

41%

1. FC Köln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

D. Downs

1. FC Köln · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

E. Bičakčić↳ S. Köhler

13'

E. Martel↳ D. Downs

30'

D. Downs↳ T. Hübers

34'

Rayan Philippe

41'

D. Huseinbašić← F. Kainz

44'

46'

60'

62'

62'

69'

L. Maina← D. Huseinbašić

74'

F. Kaufmann← J. Gómez

74'

79'

81'

82'

89'

J. Thielmann← J. Gazibegović

89'

O. Schmitt← D. Downs

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eintracht1.

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots14

10Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target6

9Off Target7

1Blocked1

10Inside Box11

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

470Total Passes368

385Accurate Passes279

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2