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1. FC Köln vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
L. Waldschmidt 88'
D. Ljubičić 61', 34'
T. Lemperle 58'
T. Hübers 26'
8/24/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 3RheinEnergieSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

1. FC Köln58%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Braunschweig21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Köln
1.96
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.08

1. FC Köln creates 81% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

1. FC Köln
2.00
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.95

allows per match

1. FC Köln
1.22
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.93

finishing

1. FC Köln+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Köln ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

1. FC Köln or draw
79%
1. FC Köln or Eintracht Braunschweig
78%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
42%

Winning margin

1. FC Köln wins by 2+
34%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

1. FC Köln 1+ goals
86%
1. FC Köln 2+ goals
58%
1. FC Köln 3+ goals
31%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
66%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
29%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

1. FC Köln (draw refunded)
74%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Köln at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Köln attack 2.00 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.95 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

1. FC Köln scores more
58%
level
22%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
21%

1. FC Köln at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. Ljubičić1. FC Köln1. FC Köln · M
9.2

Match Events

26'
T. Hübers↳ L. Maina
29'
Jan Thielmann
34'
D. Ljubičić↳ L. Maina
58'
T. Lemperle↳ J. Thielmann
59'
L. Szabó← J. Gómez
59'
L. Bell Bell← F. Di Michele Sanchez
61'
D. Ljubičić↳ T. Lemperle
66'
L. Waldschmidt← T. Lemperle
66'
N. Tauer← W. Ould-Chikh
77'
Luca Waldschmidt
77'
S. Adamyan← D. Ljubičić
85'
K. Ehlers← J. Nikolaou
85'
S. Raebiger← R. Philippe
86'
Niklas Tauer
86'
M. Olesen← E. Martel
86'
S. Tigges← D. Downs
88'
L. Waldschmidt↳ D. Huseinbašić

Possession

61%1.

Shots

241.

Pass accuracy

53%1.

Statistics

1.Eintracht
Overview
61%Possession39%
24Total Shots6
8Corners2
14Fouls7
Shots
24Total Shots6
13On Target3
7Off Target2
4Blocked1
14Inside Box4
10Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
590Total Passes369
514Accurate Passes286
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
14Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: 1. FC Köln 5–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

1. FC Köln beat Eintracht Braunschweig 5-0 in 2. Bundesliga on August 24, 2024.

Goals: T. Hübers (26'), D. Ljubičić (34', 61'), T. Lemperle (58'), L. Waldschmidt (88').

1. FC Köln controlled possession (61%) and registered 24 shots to 6.

The match was played at RheinEnergieSTADION in Köln.