Eintracht Braunsch U19 3–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

K. Yotasong 88' (pen)

N. Prabakaran 59'

K. Szczerba 51'

S. Lang 90+5'

10/28/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1944%

×Draw21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1936%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.94

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.16

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.94

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 60 away

2.13

creates per match

1.37

2.50

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

64%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

79%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

56%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

25%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

88%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

63%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

36%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

86%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

58%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.16

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

36%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Shoshaj← L. Müller

51'

59'

60'

72'

74'

O. Backfisch← N. Prabakaran

82'

D. Unger← J. Werner

82'

S. Yüksel← A. Jozanović

83'

K. Yotasong← L. Marheineke

88'

K. YotasongPenalty

90'

D. Lazic← A. Schlothauer

90'

J. Kübler← E. Karepi

90'

L. Grobauer← K. Szczerba

90+5'

S. Lang

Eintracht

Carl

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Szczerba

Manager: J. Stephan

74'▲O. Backfisch←▼N. Prabakaran

83'▲K. Yotasong←▼L. Marheineke

90'▲D. Lazic←▼A. Schlothauer

90'▲J. Kübler←▼E. Karepi

90'▲L. Grobauer←▼K. Szczerba

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

BackfischYotasongLazicKüblerGrobauerBosacki

Manager: M. Raychouni

46'▲A. Shoshaj←▼L. Müller

60'▲N. Höfer←▼R. Hasani

72'▲S. Lang←▼K. Müller

82'▲D. Unger←▼J. Werner

82'▲S. Yüksel←▼A. Jozanović

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

ShoshajHöferLangUngerYükselBağcıOuakil

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 3–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 28, 2023.

Goals: K. Szczerba (51'), N. Prabakaran (59'), K. Yotasong (88' pen), S. Lang (90+5').

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 3–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19