Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2–3 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Eintracht Braunsch U19

H. Muqaj 55'

J. Werner 33'

E. Karepi 84' (pen)

O. Backfisch 47'

M. Root 2'

4/13/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 22Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1951%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Braunsch U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.69

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.26

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.69

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

2.02

creates per match

1.38

2.00

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

71%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

80%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

49%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

30%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

89%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

66%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

39%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

82%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

50%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.26

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

29%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

33'

36'

39'

46'

F. Schröder← L. Müller

46'

S. Lang← Khalid El Haija

46'

S. Yüksel← F. Boelter

47'

O. Backfisch

55'

H. Muqaj

66'

L. Grobauer← L. Schneider

68'

B. Kehayov← A. Jozanović

84'

E. KarepiPenalty

90'

J. Kübler← J. Borsum

90'

R. Covic← L. Marheineke

Carl

Eintracht

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Raychouni

46'▲F. Schröder←▼L. Müller

46'▲S. Lang←▼Khalid El Haija

46'▲S. Yüksel←▼F. Boelter

68'▲B. Kehayov←▼A. Jozanović

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

SchröderLangYükselKehayovShoshajErtmerFendel

Manager: J. Stephan

39'▲E. Karepi←▼A. Aksac

66'▲L. Grobauer←▼L. Schneider

90'▲J. Kübler←▼J. Borsum

90'▲R. Covic←▼L. Marheineke

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

KarepiGrobauerKüblerCovicLazic

U19 Bundesliga: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2–3 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 13, 2024.

Goals: M. Root (2'), J. Werner (33'), O. Backfisch (47'), H. Muqaj (55'), E. Karepi (84' pen).

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2–3 Eintracht Braunsch U19