Eintracht Bamberg 3–1 Coburg: Result & Stats

Eintracht Bamberg

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Coburg

11/8/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg61%

×Draw20%

Coburg20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BambergExpected goals in this matchCoburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.22

Eintracht Bamberg

2.28

Coburg

1.22

Eintracht Bamberg creates 87% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

2.21

creates per match

1.53

0.91

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg

2.21

Coburg

1.53

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg

0.91

Coburg

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Coburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw

80%

Eintracht Bamberg or Coburg

80%

Draw or Coburg

39%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

39%

Coburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

90%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

66%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

39%

Coburg 1+ goals

70%

Coburg 2+ goals

34%

Coburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

76%

Coburg (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.28

Coburg attack 1.53 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

61%

level

20%

Coburg scores more

20%

Eintracht Bamberg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff