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Coburg vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
C. Fischer 81'
M. Reischmann 78'
D. Lang 70' (pen)
R. Zeitler 50'
7/22/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Coburg23%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Bamberg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.32
Eintracht Bamberg
2.17

Eintracht Bamberg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
43%
Coburg or Eintracht Bamberg
79%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
77%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
9%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
73%
Coburg 2+ goals
38%
Coburg 3+ goals
15%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
89%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
64%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
29%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Coburg scores more
23%
level
21%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
57%

Eintracht Bamberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
R. Zeitler
56'
S. Wieczorek
56'
S. Wieczorek
70'
D. LangPenalty
78'
M. Reischmann
81'
C. Fischer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coburg vs Eintracht Bamberg

Eintracht Bamberg beat Coburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 22, 2025.

Goals: R. Zeitler (50'), D. Lang (70' pen), M. Reischmann (78'), C. Fischer (81').

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.