Eintracht Bamberg 0–3 Aubstadt: Result & Stats

Eintracht Bamberg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Aubstadt

11/4/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg31%

×Draw23%

Aubstadt46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BambergExpected goals in this matchAubstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.77

Eintracht Bamberg

1.43

Aubstadt

1.77

Aubstadt creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

1.12

creates per match

1.49

2.06

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg

1.12

Aubstadt

1.49

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg

2.06

Aubstadt

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Aubstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Aubstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw

54%

Eintracht Bamberg or Aubstadt

77%

Draw or Aubstadt

69%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

14%

Aubstadt wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

76%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

42%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

17%

Aubstadt 1+ goals

83%

Aubstadt 2+ goals

53%

Aubstadt 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

41%

Aubstadt (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Aubstadt away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.12 + Aubstadt defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Aubstadt attack 1.49 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

31%

level

23%

Aubstadt scores more

46%

Aubstadt at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff