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Aubstadt vs Eintracht Bamberg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Aubstadt
Aubstadt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
7/28/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2NGN-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aubstadt61%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Bamberg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aubstadt
1.92
Eintracht Bamberg
0.90

Aubstadt creates 113% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

creates per match

Aubstadt
1.84
Eintracht Bamberg
0.82

allows per match

Aubstadt
0.98
Eintracht Bamberg
2.00

finishing

Aubstadt+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aubstadt ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aubstadt or draw
83%
Aubstadt or Eintracht Bamberg
78%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
39%

Winning margin

Aubstadt wins by 2+
36%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aubstadt 1+ goals
85%
Aubstadt 2+ goals
57%
Aubstadt 3+ goals
30%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
59%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
23%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aubstadt (draw refunded)
78%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aubstadt at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aubstadt attack 1.84 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + Aubstadt defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aubstadt scores more
61%
level
22%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
17%

Aubstadt at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aubstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aubstadt vs Eintracht Bamberg

Aubstadt beat Eintracht Bamberg 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at NGN-Arena in Aubstadt.