Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3–5 Eintracht Braunsch U19

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

2.27

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.34

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 55 away

2.17

creates per match

1.38

3.17

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.17

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.17

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or draw

61%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

80%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

59%

Winning margin

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

24%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

90%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

67%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

41%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

90%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

66%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 2.17 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.34

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

41%

level

20%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

39%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eintr. Norderstedt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Dabrowski

11'

E. Pasalic← H. Lauterbach

16'

32'

44'

45+1'

57'

59'

59'

K. Perehudov← A. Seidi

70'

A. Gega← J. Gille

70'

N. Gambke← A. Aksac

72'

L. Marheineke

75'

S. Jung← L. Rikanovic

75'

Karim Hassanin← S. Dabrowski

75'

M. Gehring← O. Backfisch

76'

K. Perehudov

83'

L. Peters← B. Redecker

Eintr.

Eintracht

▼

⚽

▼

Dabrowski

▼

Aksac

⚽

▼

Gille

⚽

Marheinek

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

11'▲E. Pasalic←▼H. Lauterbach

59'▲H. Riebau←▼T. Chen

59'▲K. Perehudov←▼A. Seidi

75'▲S. Jung←▼L. Rikanovic

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

PasalicRiebauPerehudovJungRalfsRomaniuk

Manager: C. Menzel

70'▲A. Gega←▼J. Gille

70'▲N. Gambke←▼A. Aksac

75'▲Karim Hassanin←▼S. Dabrowski

75'▲M. Gehring←▼O. Backfisch

83'▲L. Peters←▼B. Redecker

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

GegaGambkeHassaninGehringPeters

U19 Bundesliga: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3–5 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 beat Eintr. Norderstedt U19 5-3 in U19 Bundesliga on May 10, 2025.

Goals: S. Dabrowski (9'), J. Wardius (16'), J. Gille (32'), B. Redecker (44'), J. Strauß (45+1'), L. Rikanovic (57'), L. Marheineke (72'), K. Perehudov (76').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2 in Norderstedt.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3–5 Eintracht Braunsch U19