Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2–4 BAK 07 U19

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

BAK 07 U19

H. Lauterbach 60'

J. Wardius 52'

M. Mawd 90+2'

I. Danfa 88', 74'

A. Farhadi 64'

2/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U1944%

×Draw19%

BAK 07 U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

2.25

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.48

BAK 07 U19

2.25

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

2.17

creates per match

1.33

3.17

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.17

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.17

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or draw

64%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or BAK 07 U19

81%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

56%

Winning margin

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

26%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

92%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

70%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

44%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

89%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

65%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

55%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 2.17 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.48

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

44%

level

19%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

36%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintr. Norderstedt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

52'

60'

60'

64'

69'

A. Keles← Fernando Baldé

70'

A. Diachun← O. Demchuk

74'

I. Danfa

78'

J. Soobin← L. Rikanovic

85'

B. Hartrampf← D. Duah

85'

88'

90'

90+2'

Eintr.

BAK

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

70'▲A. Diachun←▼O. Demchuk

78'▲J. Soobin←▼L. Rikanovic

85'▲B. Hartrampf←▼D. Duah

85'▲H. Riebau←▼M. Mbodje

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

DiachunSoobinHartrampfRiebauFaizyRalfsChen

Manager: J. Eckert

46'▲M. Mawd←▼J. Dietrich

60'▲D. Ameen←▼O. Balliu

69'▲A. Keles←▼Fernando Baldé

90'▲B. Derin←▼I. Danfa

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

MawdAmeenKelesDerinMohammadiYosmaKopal

Match Recap: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 vs BAK 07 U19

BAK 07 U19 beat Eintr. Norderstedt U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Wardius (52'), H. Lauterbach (60'), A. Farhadi (64'), I. Danfa (74', 88'), M. Mawd (90+2').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2 in Norderstedt.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 vs BAK 07 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Eintr. Norderstedt U19 vs BAK 07 U19