BAK 07 U19 4–0 Eintr. Norderstedt U19

BAK 07 U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

I. Danfa 87', 60', 23'

D. Ameen 51'

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 9Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

BAK 07 U1955%

×Draw18%

Eintr. Norderstedt U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchEintr. Norderstedt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.93

BAK 07 U19

2.76

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.93

BAK 07 U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

2.03

creates per match

1.83

2.03

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.83

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

73%

BAK 07 U19 or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

82%

Draw or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

45%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

36%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

94%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

76%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

51%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

85%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

57%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.76

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 1.83 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

55%

level

18%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

27%

BAK 07 U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BAK 07 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

51'

60'

67'

67'

F. Hartmann← O. Balliu

69'

A. Diachun← L. Alpsoy

69'

S. Jung← L. Rikanovic

76'

F. Yosma← S. Zirarov

76'

D. Busch← B. Appiah

76'

K. Perehudov← A. Seidi

76'

T. Frimpong← J. Faizy

84'

R. Romaniuk← J. Bente

86'

J. Dietrich← Fernando Baldé

87'

I. Danfa

BAK

Eintr.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ameen

⚽3

Danfa

▼

Baldé

Manager: J. Eckert

67'▲A. Keles←▼D. Ameen

67'▲F. Hartmann←▼O. Balliu

76'▲F. Yosma←▼S. Zirarov

86'▲J. Dietrich←▼Fernando Baldé

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

KelesHartmannYosmaDietrichMohammadiDerinKopal

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

69'▲A. Diachun←▼L. Alpsoy

69'▲S. Jung←▼L. Rikanovic

76'▲D. Busch←▼B. Appiah

76'▲K. Perehudov←▼A. Seidi

76'▲T. Frimpong←▼J. Faizy

84'▲R. Romaniuk←▼J. Bente

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

DiachunJungBuschPerehudovFrimpongRomaniukRode

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19

BAK 07 U19 beat Eintr. Norderstedt U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: I. Danfa (23', 60', 87'), D. Ameen (51').

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Eintr. Norderstedt U19