Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Einheit Wernigerode vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
4/24/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 25Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode48%
×Draw22%
An der Fahner Höhe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Einheit Wernigerode
1.91
An der Fahner Höhe
1.48

Einheit Wernigerode creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 37 away

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode
2.12
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode
1.92
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw
70%
Einheit Wernigerode or An der Fahner Höhe
78%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
52%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
27%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
85%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
57%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
30%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
77%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
43%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
61%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.91

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more
48%
level
22%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
30%

Einheit Wernigerode at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Einheit Wernigerode 0 – 1 An der Fahner Höhe

An der Fahner Höhe beat Einheit Wernigerode 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße in Wernigerode.