An der Fahner Höhe 1–0 Einheit Wernigerode

An der Fahner Höhe

FT

1 – 0

Einheit Wernigerode

9/11/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 6Stadion Dachwig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

An der Fahner Höhe44%

×Draw23%

Einheit Wernigerode34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

An der Fahner HöheExpected goals in this matchEinheit Wernigerode

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.57

An der Fahner Höhe

1.81

Einheit Wernigerode

1.57

An der Fahner Höhe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

1.41

creates per match

1.39

1.76

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.41

Einheit Wernigerode

1.39

allows per match

An der Fahner Höhe

1.76

Einheit Wernigerode

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

An der Fahner Höhe ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

An der Fahner Höhe or draw

66%

An der Fahner Höhe or Einheit Wernigerode

77%

Draw or Einheit Wernigerode

56%

Winning margin

An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+

23%

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals

84%

An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals

54%

An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals

27%

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

79%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

46%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)

56%

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

An der Fahner Höhe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.76 · 37 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.41 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.81

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

An der Fahner Höhe scores more

44%

level

23%

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

34%

An der Fahner Höhe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "An der Fahner Höhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff