Einheit Rudolstadt 2–1 Budissa Bautzen

Einheit Rudolstadt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Budissa Bautzen

2/18/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 17Kunstrasenplatz Städtisches Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Einheit Rudolstadt44%

×Draw23%

Budissa Bautzen34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit RudolstadtExpected goals in this matchBudissa Bautzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.56

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.81

Budissa Bautzen

1.56

Einheit Rudolstadt creates 16% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 77 away

1.51

creates per match

1.78

1.34

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.51

Budissa Bautzen

1.78

allows per match

Einheit Rudolstadt

1.34

Budissa Bautzen

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Rudolstadt ↓

Budissa Bautzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Einheit Rudolstadt or draw

66%

Einheit Rudolstadt or Budissa Bautzen

77%

Draw or Budissa Bautzen

56%

Winning margin

Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+

23%

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals

84%

Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals

54%

Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals

27%

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals

79%

Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals

46%

Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)

57%

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Rudolstadt at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 83 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.51 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Einheit Rudolstadt scores more

44%

level

23%

Budissa Bautzen scores more

34%

Einheit Rudolstadt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Einheit Rudolstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff