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Budissa Bautzen vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
9/1/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4SpA Humboldhain Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Budissa Bautzen54%
×Draw21%
Einheit Rudolstadt25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
2.12
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

Budissa Bautzen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 82 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
75%
Budissa Bautzen or Einheit Rudolstadt
79%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
46%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
32%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
88%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
62%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
35%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
75%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
41%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
68%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.12

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
54%
level
21%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
25%

Budissa Bautzen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 2–2 Einheit Rudolstadt

Budissa Bautzen and Einheit Rudolstadt drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at SpA Humboldhain Platz 1 in Bautzen.