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Eimsbütteler TV vs Teutonia Ottensen — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teutonia Ottensen
Teutonia Ottensen
3/6/2026Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 26ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV74%
×Draw17%
Teutonia Ottensen9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV
2.27
Teutonia Ottensen
0.64

Eimsbütteler TV creates 255% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV
2.55
Teutonia Ottensen
0.00

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV
1.27
Teutonia Ottensen
2.00

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par
Teutonia Ottensen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV ↓

Teutonia Ottensen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV or draw
91%
Eimsbütteler TV or Teutonia Ottensen
83%
Draw or Teutonia Ottensen
26%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
50%
Teutonia Ottensen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
90%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
66%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
39%
Teutonia Ottensen 1+ goals
47%
Teutonia Ottensen 2+ goals
14%
Teutonia Ottensen 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
89%
Teutonia Ottensen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Teutonia Ottensen away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.55 + Teutonia Ottensen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Teutonia Ottensen attack 0.00 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Eimsbütteler TV scores more
74%
level
17%
Teutonia Ottensen scores more
9%

Eimsbütteler TV at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eimsbütteler TV vs Teutonia Ottensen

Eimsbütteler TV beat Teutonia Ottensen 1-0 in Oberliga - Hamburg on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft in Hamburg.