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Eimsbütteler TV vs Teutonia Ottensen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Teutonia Ottensen
Teutonia Ottensen
Unknown 80'
M. Fionouke 9' (OG)
Unknown 90'
1/7/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV78%
×Draw12%
Teutonia Ottensen10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV
3.79
Teutonia Ottensen
1.38

Eimsbütteler TV creates 175% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV
4.00
Teutonia Ottensen
1.43

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV
1.33
Teutonia Ottensen
3.57

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par
Teutonia Ottensen+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV ↓

Teutonia Ottensen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV or draw
90%
Eimsbütteler TV or Teutonia Ottensen
88%
Draw or Teutonia Ottensen
22%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
61%
Teutonia Ottensen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
98%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
88%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
70%
Teutonia Ottensen 1+ goals
75%
Teutonia Ottensen 2+ goals
40%
Teutonia Ottensen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
89%
Teutonia Ottensen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Teutonia Ottensen away — creates 1.43, concedes 3.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV attack 4.00 + Teutonia Ottensen defence 3.57 → ÷2 → 3.79

Teutonia Ottensen attack 1.43 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Eimsbütteler TV scores more
78%
level
12%
Teutonia Ottensen scores more
10%

Eimsbütteler TV at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. FionoukeOwn goal
80'
90'
Eimsbütteler
Teutonia
K. Atamimi
Manager: K. Atamimi
D. Schahin
Manager: D. Schahin

Match Recap: Eimsbütteler TV vs Teutonia Ottensen

Eimsbütteler TV beat Teutonia Ottensen 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 7, 2025.

Goals: M. Fionouke (9' o.g.), ? (80', 90').

The match was played at ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft in Hamburg.