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Eimsbütteler TV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Eimsbütteler TV U19
Eimsbütteler TV U19
CANC
10:00
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
2/7/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV U1943%
×Draw22%
Chemnitzer FC U1935%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.90
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.69

Eimsbütteler TV U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 52 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.00
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.38

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV U19
2.00
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.79

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV U19 or draw
65%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
78%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
57%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+
24%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals
85%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals
56%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals
29%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
82%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
50%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.90

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
35%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eimsbütteler TV U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — Match Preview

Eimsbütteler TV U19 face Chemnitzer FC U19 on February 7, 2021 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eimsbütteler TV U19 host Chemnitzer FC U19 at Wolfgang-Meyer-Sportanlage.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.