Chemnitzer FC U19 2–2 Eimsbütteler TV U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Eimsbütteler TV U19

P. Kämpfer 80'

M. Roscher 73'

T. Boakye 88'

J. Kliti 23'

12/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 9Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1944%

×Draw23%

Eimsbütteler TV U1934%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.57

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.81

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.57

Chemnitzer FC U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

2.15

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

66%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19

77%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19

56%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

23%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

84%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

54%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

27%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

79%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

46%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

34%

Chemnitzer FC U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chemnitzer FC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Kliti

73'

M. Roscher

80'

P. Kämpfer

82'

F. Pawletta← F. Heidler

85'

I. Mansaray← J. Kliti

88'

Y. Luib← P. Kämpfer

88'

T. Boakye

Chemnitzer

Eimsbütteler

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Kämpfer

Manager: J. Stephan

82'▲F. Pawletta←▼F. Heidler

88'▲Y. Luib←▼P. Kämpfer

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

PawlettaLuibDorfsWolterWeidauerFrömmelSelishta

Manager: P. Nabaoui

85'▲I. Mansaray←▼J. Kliti

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

MansarayFedkenhauerGyemaGörtzenKoschorreckAjruliKolvenbach

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19

Chemnitzer FC U19 and Eimsbütteler TV U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 11, 2021.

Goals: J. Kliti (23'), M. Roscher (73'), P. Kämpfer (80'), T. Boakye (88').

The match was played at Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz in Chemnitz.

Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chemnitzer FC U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19