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Eilendorf vs Alfter — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eilendorf
Eilendorf
CANC
13:00
Alfter
Alfter
4/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Rasenplatz Halfenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Eilendorf34%
×Draw24%
Alfter42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eilendorf
1.47
Alfter
1.64

Alfter creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Eilendorf
1.20
Alfter
1.58

allows per match

Eilendorf
1.70
Alfter
1.74

finishing

Eilendorf+0.00on par
Alfter+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eilendorf ↓

Alfter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eilendorf or draw
58%
Eilendorf or Alfter
76%
Draw or Alfter
66%

Winning margin

Eilendorf wins by 2+
16%
Alfter wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Eilendorf 1+ goals
77%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
43%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
18%
Alfter 1+ goals
81%
Alfter 2+ goals
49%
Alfter 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Eilendorf (draw refunded)
45%
Alfter (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eilendorf at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Alfter away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eilendorf attack 1.20 + Alfter defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Alfter attack 1.58 + Eilendorf defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eilendorf scores more
34%
level
24%
Alfter scores more
42%

Alfter at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eilendorf host Alfter

April 5, 2021: Eilendorf take on Alfter in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eilendorf host Alfter at Rasenplatz Halfenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.