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Alfter vs Eilendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Alfter
Alfter
FT
4 – 1
Eilendorf
Eilendorf
10/4/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Alfter54%
×Draw22%
Eilendorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alfter
1.94
Eilendorf
1.23

Alfter creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Alfter
1.68
Eilendorf
0.90

allows per match

Alfter
1.55
Eilendorf
2.20

finishing

Alfter+0.00on par
Eilendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfter ↓

Eilendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Alfter or draw
76%
Alfter or Eilendorf
78%
Draw or Eilendorf
46%

Winning margin

Alfter wins by 2+
31%
Eilendorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alfter 1+ goals
86%
Alfter 2+ goals
58%
Alfter 3+ goals
30%
Eilendorf 1+ goals
71%
Eilendorf 2+ goals
35%
Eilendorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Alfter (draw refunded)
69%
Eilendorf (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfter at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

Eilendorf away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfter attack 1.68 + Eilendorf defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eilendorf attack 0.90 + Alfter defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alfter scores more
54%
level
22%
Eilendorf scores more
24%

Alfter at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alfter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alfter vs Eilendorf

Alfter beat Eilendorf 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Alfter.