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EIF vs Turku PS — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PSadvanced
4/15/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Tammisaari Keskuskentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF22%
×Draw22%
Turku PS57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.16
Turku PS
2.00

Turku PS creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
Turku PS
2.00

allows per match

EIF
2.00
Turku PS
1.18

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EIF or draw
43%
EIF or Turku PS
78%
Draw or Turku PS
78%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
8%
Turku PS wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
69%
EIF 2+ goals
32%
EIF 3+ goals
11%
Turku PS 1+ goals
86%
Turku PS 2+ goals
59%
Turku PS 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
28%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Turku PS away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + Turku PS defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Turku PS attack 2.00 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

EIF scores more
22%
level
22%
Turku PS scores more
57%

Turku PS at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Turku PS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EIF vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat EIF 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Tammisaari Keskuskentta in Raseborg.