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EIF vs Turku PS — Ykkösliiga 2024

EIF
EIF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Turku PS
Turku PS
7/25/2025YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Round 17Tammisaari Keskuskentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

EIF39%
×Draw23%
Turku PS37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.65
Turku PS
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

creates per match

EIF
2.10
Turku PS
1.73

allows per match

EIF
1.48
Turku PS
1.19

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

EIF or draw
63%
EIF or Turku PS
77%
Draw or Turku PS
61%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
20%
Turku PS wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
81%
EIF 2+ goals
49%
EIF 3+ goals
23%
Turku PS 1+ goals
80%
Turku PS 2+ goals
47%
Turku PS 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
51%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Turku PS away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 2.10 + Turku PS defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.65

Turku PS attack 1.73 + EIF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

EIF scores more
39%
level
23%
Turku PS scores more
37%

EIF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EIF vs Turku PS

Turku PS beat EIF 2-0 in Ykkösliiga on July 25, 2025.

The match was played at Tammisaari Keskuskentta in Raseborg.