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Eichstätt vs Donaustauf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eichstätt
Eichstätt
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Donaustauf
Donaustauf
L. Schraufstetter 81'
J. Fries 25' (pen)
10/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 19Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Eichstätt57%
×Draw21%
Donaustauf22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eichstätt
2.12
Donaustauf
1.26

Eichstätt creates 68% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Eichstätt
2.29
Donaustauf
1.63

allows per match

Eichstätt
0.89
Donaustauf
1.94

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par
Donaustauf+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

Donaustauf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw
78%
Eichstätt or Donaustauf
79%
Draw or Donaustauf
43%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+
34%
Donaustauf wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals
88%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
62%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
35%
Donaustauf 1+ goals
72%
Donaustauf 2+ goals
36%
Donaustauf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)
72%
Donaustauf (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Donaustauf away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 2.29 + Donaustauf defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.12

Donaustauf attack 1.63 + Eichstätt defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eichstätt scores more
57%
level
21%
Donaustauf scores more
22%

Eichstätt at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. FriesPenalty
61'
L. Eberle
61'
L. Eberle
74'
A. Hoti
81'
L. Schraufstetter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eichstätt 2–0 Donaustauf

Eichstätt beat Donaustauf 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Fries (25' pen), L. Schraufstetter (81').

The match was played at Liqui-Moly-Stadion in Eichstätt.