Donaustauf 2–8 Eichstätt: Result & Stats

Donaustauf

FT

2 – 8

HT: 0 – 5

Eichstätt

R. Kryezi 73', 57'

L. Schraufstetter 89', 83', 23', 14', 4'

J. Fries 55'

T. Weglehner 34', 29'

5/18/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 38Sportzentrum Donaustauf - Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Donaustauf28%

×Draw21%

Eichstätt51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonaustaufExpected goals in this matchEichstätt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.17

Donaustauf

1.57

Eichstätt

2.17

Eichstätt creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

1.80

creates per match

2.23

2.11

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Donaustauf

1.80

Eichstätt

2.23

allows per match

Donaustauf

2.11

Eichstätt

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donaustauf+0.00on par

Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donaustauf ↓

Eichstätt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Donaustauf or draw

49%

Donaustauf or Eichstätt

79%

Draw or Eichstätt

72%

Winning margin

Donaustauf wins by 2+

13%

Eichstätt wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Donaustauf 1+ goals

79%

Donaustauf 2+ goals

46%

Donaustauf 3+ goals

21%

Eichstätt 1+ goals

89%

Eichstätt 2+ goals

64%

Eichstätt 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Donaustauf (draw refunded)

35%

Eichstätt (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donaustauf at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donaustauf attack 1.80 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.57

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Donaustauf defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Donaustauf scores more

28%

level

21%

Eichstätt scores more

51%

Eichstätt at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

L. Schraufstetter

14'

L. Schraufstetter

23'

L. Schraufstetter

29'

T. Weglehner

34'

T. Weglehner

55'

J. Fries

57'

R. Kryezi

73'

R. Kryezi

83'

L. Schraufstetter

89'

L. Schraufstetter

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff