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Eichstätt vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eichstätt
Eichstätt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
8/4/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4Liqui-Moly-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Eichstätt60%
×Draw21%
ATSV Erlangen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eichstätt
1.99
ATSV Erlangen
1.02

Eichstätt creates 95% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eichstätt
2.29
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Eichstätt
0.89
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Eichstätt+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eichstätt ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eichstätt or draw
81%
Eichstätt or ATSV Erlangen
79%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
40%

Winning margin

Eichstätt wins by 2+
36%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eichstätt 1+ goals
86%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
59%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
32%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
64%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
27%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eichstätt (draw refunded)
76%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eichstätt at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eichstätt attack 2.29 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.99

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Eichstätt defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eichstätt scores more
60%
level
21%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
19%

Eichstätt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eichstätt 3–0 ATSV Erlangen

Eichstätt beat ATSV Erlangen 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Liqui-Moly-Stadion in Eichstätt.