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ATSV Erlangen vs Eichstätt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
4/17/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ATSV Erlangen34%
×Draw23%
Eichstätt44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.56
Eichstätt
1.80

Eichstätt creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Eichstätt
2.23

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Eichstätt
1.34

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
56%
ATSV Erlangen or Eichstätt
77%
Draw or Eichstätt
66%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
16%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
79%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
46%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
21%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
83%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
54%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
44%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
34%
level
23%
Eichstätt scores more
44%

Eichstätt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ATSV Erlangen vs Eichstätt

ATSV Erlangen beat Eichstätt 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.