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Eibar vs Cadiz — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cadiz
Cadiz
A. Ares 83'
Javier Marton 42'
J. Corpas 34' (pen)
B. Ocampo 89'
3/1/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Eibar59%
×Draw22%
Cadiz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.91
Cadiz
0.96

Eibar creates 99% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Eibar
2.23
Cadiz
0.85

allows per match

Eibar
1.07
Cadiz
1.58

finishing

Eibar-0.10scores less
Cadiz+0.04on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Cadiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
81%
Eibar or Cadiz
78%
Draw or Cadiz
41%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
35%
Cadiz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
85%
Eibar 2+ goals
57%
Eibar 3+ goals
30%
Cadiz 1+ goals
62%
Cadiz 2+ goals
25%
Cadiz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
76%
Cadiz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Cadiz away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 2.23 + Cadiz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.91

Cadiz attack 0.85 + Eibar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Eibar scores more
59%
level
22%
Cadiz scores more
19%

Eibar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. CorpasEibarEibar · F
8.9

Match Events

34'
J. CorpasPenalty
42'
Javier Marton↳ J. Corpas
46'
A. Fernandez← M. Diakite
58'
Jorge Moreno
61'
B. Ocampo← Suso
62'
R. Pereira← I. Carcelen
62'
J. Domina← A. Pascual
67'
A. Ares← A. Madariaga
67'
J. Bautista← Javier Marton
76'
J. Magunazelaia Argoitia← J. Guruzeta
76'
Jair← L. Olaetxea
83'
A. Ares↳ P. Nolaskoain
84'
Y. Diarra← S. Ortuno
88'
J. Bernat← A. Arbilla
89'
B. Ocampo
90+3'
Alfred Caicedo

Possession

51%Eibar

Shots

14Eibar

Pass accuracy

51%Eibar

Statistics

EibarCadiz
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots6
2.23Expected Goals (xG)0.28
4Corners0
10Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots6
7On Target1
6Off Target2
1Blocked3
9Inside Box2
5Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
537Total Passes502
460Accurate Passes421
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Eibar 3 – 1 Cadiz

Eibar beat Cadiz 3-1 in Segunda División on March 1, 2026.

Goals: J. Corpas (34' pen), Javier Marton (42'), A. Ares (83'), B. Ocampo (89').

Eibar controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.