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Cadiz vs Eibar — La Liga 2026

Cadiz
Cadiz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eibar
Eibar
Álvaro Negredo 40'
3/6/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 26Estadio Ramón de Carranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cadiz41%
×Draw28%
Eibar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cadiz
1.27
Eibar
1.08

Cadiz creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 59 away

creates per match

Cadiz
0.95
Eibar
0.81

allows per match

Cadiz
1.34
Eibar
1.59

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par
Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Eibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw
69%
Cadiz or Eibar
72%
Draw or Eibar
59%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+
18%
Eibar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals
72%
Cadiz 2+ goals
36%
Cadiz 3+ goals
14%
Eibar 1+ goals
66%
Eibar 2+ goals
29%
Eibar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)
56%
Eibar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.59 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 0.95 + Eibar defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eibar attack 0.81 + Cadiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cadiz scores more
41%
level
28%
Eibar scores more
31%

Cadiz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. LedesmaCadizCadiz · G
7.9

Match Events

16'
Sergi Enrich
17'
Marcos MauroGoal cancelled
34'
José Ángel
40'
Álvaro Negredo↳ A. Espino
51'
José Mari
63'
Alberto Perea← Salvi
68'
Kévin Rodrigues← Pedro León
68'
Aleix García← Edu Expósito
74'
Jon Garrido← J. Jønsson
74'
Fali Jiménez← José Mari
74'
A. Lozano← Álvaro Negredo
80'
Jairo Izquierdo← Isaac Carcelén
80'
Y. Muto← Kike
80'
Recio← P. Diop
90'
Jairo Izquierdo González

Possession

31%Cadiz

Shots

6Cadiz

Pass accuracy

42%Cadiz

Statistics

CadizEibar
Overview
31%Possession69%
6Total Shots16
0Corners12
7Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots16
2On Target1
4Off Target10
0Blocked5
5Inside Box10
1Outside Box6
Passing
31%Possession69%
244Total Passes500
137Accurate Passes387
56%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

La Liga: Cadiz 1–0 Eibar

Cadiz beat Eibar 1-0 in La Liga on March 6, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro Negredo (40').

Eibar controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón de Carranza in Cádiz.