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Eibar vs Athletic Club — La Liga 2026

Eibar
Eibar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
9/27/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eibar41%
×Draw28%
Athletic Club31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.27
Athletic Club
1.05

Eibar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 127 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.22
Athletic Club
0.95

allows per match

Eibar
1.16
Athletic Club
1.33

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Athletic Club+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Athletic Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
69%
Eibar or Athletic Club
72%
Draw or Athletic Club
59%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
19%
Athletic Club wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
72%
Eibar 2+ goals
36%
Eibar 3+ goals
14%
Athletic Club 1+ goals
65%
Athletic Club 2+ goals
28%
Athletic Club 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
57%
Athletic Club (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Athletic Club away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.22 + Athletic Club defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Athletic Club attack 0.95 + Eibar defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar scores more
41%
level
28%
Athletic Club scores more
31%

Eibar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar vs Athletic Club

Athletic Club beat Eibar 2-1 in La Liga on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.