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Athletic Club vs Eibar — La Liga 2026

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eibar
Eibar
3/20/2021La LigaLa Liga · Round 28San Mamés Barria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club51%
×Draw27%
Eibar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club
1.46
Eibar
0.85

Athletic Club creates 72% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 57 away

creates per match

Athletic Club
1.31
Eibar
0.81

allows per match

Athletic Club
0.90
Eibar
1.60

finishing

Athletic Club+0.00on par
Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club ↓

Eibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Athletic Club or draw
78%
Athletic Club or Eibar
73%
Draw or Eibar
49%

Winning margin

Athletic Club wins by 2+
26%
Eibar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Athletic Club 1+ goals
77%
Athletic Club 2+ goals
43%
Athletic Club 3+ goals
18%
Eibar 1+ goals
57%
Eibar 2+ goals
21%
Eibar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club (draw refunded)
70%
Eibar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 128 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club attack 1.31 + Eibar defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Eibar attack 0.81 + Athletic Club defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Athletic Club scores more
51%
level
27%
Eibar scores more
22%

Athletic Club at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Athletic Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club vs Eibar

Athletic Club and Eibar drew 1-1 in La Liga on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at San Mamés Barria in Bilbao.